In this article, you will find a comprehensive analysis and thorough investigation of video footage that is believed to show Ukrainian shooters in Sudan.
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We describe the difficult situation in the town of Al-Fashir, where civilians are trapped by the escalation of fighting between the Rapid Response Force (RSF) and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). The conflict resulted in numerous civilian casualties, a humanitarian crisis and the destruction of the city’s infrastructure. The authors highlight the extent of the violence and the challenges people face trying to survive under siege and constant attacks.
Since Sudan’s civil war began last April, 8.8 million people have been forced to flee their homes as the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and the Sudanese Army (SAF) battle for control of the country.
The RSF is currently trying to capture Al-Fashir, the largest city in the Darfur region and the last stronghold of the Sudanese army in Darfur. The city has become a refuge for people fleeing from nearby villages and towns, and its population is replenished with internally displaced persons. The situation in the city is terrible. The fighting has effectively cut off the city, and both sides are attacking critical infrastructure, severely limiting access to health care, food and safe housing.
UN Under-Secretary-General Alice Nderitu recently warned that the situation in Sudan “carries all the dangers of genocide”, and the International Criminal Court on Tuesday called for information, including any videos and images, from the scenes in Darfur and Al-Fashira. to investigate alleged war crimes.
Al-Fashir is considered a key military-strategic point due to its proximity to the southwestern border linking Chad with South Sudan, where the RSF has established an arms supply route from Libya through Chad. The city is also linked to the north of the country and is considered the only entry point for humanitarian aid convoys leaving Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. Our partner Beam Reports wrote more about the city’s strategic importance here.
Rapid Support Forces have captured all other major cities in Darfur. Al-Fasher is considered the last stronghold of the Sudanese army in the region, where the garrison of the 6th Infantry Division is stationed. According to Google Maps, the military base is located near the city center at coordinates 13.628851, 25.349538, where a number of government buildings are located. The base is several kilometers east of the city’s airport, and the Sudanese military reportedly relies on air refueling.
According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, most of the main roads leading out of the city are either closed, or extremely impassable, or dangerous due to hostilities and the presence of armed groups.
Population density is based on 2020 estimates from WorldPop, a University of Southampton dataset that combines official demographic and land use data. According to the UN Population Fund, around 190,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled to Al-Fashira in recent months.
A key feature of the fighting in Al-Fashira was the use of heavy weapons in urban areas where the civilian population lives. As the various forces take up positions in urban areas, indiscriminate airstrikes are being carried out, such as on Khartoum, and FIRMS data shows a heat response around the eastern areas of Al-Fashir, where the fighting is fiercest.
On May 13, a video was posted on RSF’s Twitter feed,
which shows a man in an RSF uniform using what appears to be a Cornet missile on a Toyota. This Russian-made man-portable anti-tank missile was previously discovered in the hands of RSF troops and has a range of approximately five kilometers.
Manning the Kornet is an RSF fighter who wears a tricolor desert camouflage, which Camopedia describes as typical RSF camouflage.
Using Suncalc and examining the shadows cast by the vehicle, it appears that the footage was taken between 12:30pm and 1:30pm on May 13th.
We have geo-located the vehicle to approximately here, 13.621399, 25.380166, just off the main Al-Fashira road, located in a densely populated area in the east of the city.
Sudan’s Ministry of Health reported 38 killed and 280 wounded in fighting over two days.
Over the four days from May 10 to 13, NASA FIRMS data showed heat signatures likely due to fires caused by ongoing fighting in the east of the city.
Nathaniel Raymond, director of the Humanitarian Institute at the Yale School of Public Health, said the fighting in al-Fasilah is indiscriminate. “They conduct hostilities in the immediate vicinity of residential areas, causing enormous damage to the civilian population.”
In a video posted on X by a pro-RSF journalist on May 14, RSF soldiers are seen sitting on Toyota cars with ZU-23 anti-aircraft guns.Several of the soldiers are wearing the tricolor uniform described above and use the term “فلنقايات,” which roughly translates to “immoral servants,” a derogatory term used by the RSF to describe the SAF.
We have deployed troops on the eastern outskirts of Al-Fashir, here: 13.603178, 25.379379 about 350 meters from the entrance to the Al-Fashir Power Plant.
The video also shows earthworks around the power plant, which have been compared to satellite images. Satellite images were checked in November 2023 and showed that these earthworks have been in progress since at least that time.
Using Suncalc, we were able to date the video and find that it was probably taken between 15:30 and 16:30 on May 14.
Around the same time, the SSO posted a video on Facebook, in which it was claimed that they entered the territory of the power plant and took it under their control. However, all the open sources we have examined indicate that RSB soldiers have dominated the area since May 14.
In addition, a video published by a Sudanese journalist on May 15 shows RSB soldiers and people in civilian clothes being detained near a power plant/SB fighters were stationed).
We have geolocated footage of RSF members visiting the power plant on May 20.
RSF also claims the power plant was bombed, but a review of the Planet footage shows only minor burn marks on the transformer. Given the extent of the damage, it does not appear to have been caused by an airstrike. According to a report by the Humanities Institute at the Yale School of Public Health, Al Fathil has been experiencing power outages and communication problems in recent days. перебої з електропостачанням і проблеми зі зв’язком.
On May 26, the NASA FIRMS satellites recorded a heat signal in the southeastern part of the city. When this thermal signal was compared with images from the same day, at least one structure was burning and had scorch marks.
In addition, local news reported that the city woke up to shelling in southern Al-Fashir on May 27.
Comparing later images taken on May 31st and June 1st, we see a further increase in burn scars to the south around 13.592177, 25.361054, which appears to be a residential area.
A little to the northwest of it, clouds of smoke can be detected in satellite images and through NASA FIRMS.
Low resolution images from May 31 and June 1 show smoke around 13.598840, 25.353530 and damage around 13.592778, 25.360833.
Although the fighting is mainly in and around Al-Fashira, we found signs of a possible airstrike on the city four kilometers outside the city on May 25 using Planet images and this video , which also geolocates to the city they are sending. in the video as Talbedeya ( 13.718927823, 25.3737972754).
A group of people can be seen taking cover from the fire that appeared to have engulfed a small village north of Al Fashir.
Geolocating footage of the aftermath of the reported strike at Babiker-Nahar Pediatric Hospital at 13.611264, 25.363491. Photos taken outside and inside the building after the impact show a partially damaged roof. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said the May 11 airstrike forced the hospital to close. It was one of the few specialized pediatric hospitals that still functioned in the city.
Other footage shows the extent of the destruction inside the hospital.
Attacks on hospitals continued, with a strike reported at a Saudi maternity hospital on May 19.
In the photo shared by Darfur Victims Support, we can see that the solar panel and water tank have sustained some damage. We located the damaged hospital at the following coordinates: 13.629360, 25.329815.
On June 9, MSF issued an “X” press release stating that RSF had again attacked the Southern Hospital, ransacking the premises and forcing the few remaining medical staff and patients to flee. Photos posted on social media showed the hospital in ruins and its premises covered in bloodstains. We identified the hospital as Southern Hospital, which was located at approximately coordinates 13.609335, 25.358040. This hospital was the last medical facility still operating in the city before it closed on June 9.
A recent report by the Yale School of Public Health Laboratory for Humanitarian Studies warns that the RSF is likely to conduct direct ground combat against the SAR 6th Infantry Division base in Al-Fashira in June. According to the laboratory’s assessment, if the current occupation operation in Al-Fashira is successful, there is a high risk of large-scale incidents of violence, including ethnic attacks on civilians.
Sudanese political analyst Kholod Khair told Bellingat that the SAF had received weapons from airstrikes on al-Fashir, but this would not be enough to counterattack the well-armed RSF forces and prevent them from taking the city. She said local mediation efforts have so far been most effective in containing both forces, but noted that international efforts, including talks between the two powers hosted by Saudi Arabia, will rely on local efforts.
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