Missile attack exposed, evidence points to Russia in attack on children’s hospital in Kyiv

We are investigating the rocket attack on the Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital in Kyiv, which occurred on July 8, 2024. Using data from open sources, it was determined that the missile that struck the hospital was a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, disproving claims that it was of American origin. The analysis included the study of video footage, 3D modeling and the remains of the missile. Pro-Russian sources tried to shift the blame, but the evidence clearly points to Russian responsibility.

Investigation of rocket attack on a children’s hospital in Kyiv

Analysis of data from open sources and the conclusions of experts indicate that it was a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile that hit a children’s hospital in Kyiv, refuting the statements of pro-Russian sources who tried to shift the blame for the attack to Ukraine.

After the attack, several social networks known for spreading misinformation, in particular through the account of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, claimed that the missile was American-made and that it was launched by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile system.

However, the results of research conducted on the basis of videos from social networks and 3D modeling of the missile showed that the ammunition was the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile. These findings support the opinion of experts, including Dr. Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo, who specializes in rocket technology.

And here is the video from this tweet, via the link.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear weapons and missile expert at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, Calif., confirmed in an email that footage of the attack posted on social media showed a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.

An alternative theory circulating on the Internet, that the missile could have been an American-made AIM-120, was also tested, but no evidence was found to support this version.

The attack on the hospital was part of a large-scale Russian missile attack that hit civilian targets elsewhere in Ukraine, including the city of Dnipro. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the shelling began at approximately 10:00 a.m. local time, during which at least 36 missiles were fired, including 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Analysis of footage of a missile strike

Shortly before noon, reports began to come in that an explosion had occurred at Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital. After these reports, a video was published on Telegram showing how the rocket hit the hospital.

The video clearly shows the rocket hitting the hospital. The following shots of the rocket are taken from the video above.

The rocket shows several characteristics, including what appears to be a jet engine at the rear, as well as two short wings near the middle of the rocket.

These are the distinguishing features of the Kh-101, a cruise missile used exclusively by the Russian Armed Forces. Comparing the screenshot of the missile that hit the hospital with the 3D rendering of the X-101 missile shows that both do indeed have these traits.

The video superimposed on the two images above also demonstrates the match between the characteristics and proportions of the 3D model of the X-101 and the missile that hit the hospital.

Remnants of rockets

After the attack, the Security Service of Ukraine released three images, which probably show remnants of ammunition that hit the hospital. According to their preliminary conclusions, it was a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, which corresponds to the previously mentioned video materials.

The images show what appears to be a support spar and engine panel. Manuals and images documenting previous X-101 strikes detail similar debris.

For example, the support spar in the image below turned out to be similar to the one found in the 2022 ZSU identification manual (page 28), which details the previous X-101 strike.

Another image showing a yellow panel with the numbers “2983” appears to match what the same identification guide describes as the X-101 engine cover (p. 28, fig. 22). The reference image from the manual has another part that gives a more complete view of the serial number.

In addition, one of the images released by the SBU shows markings on the remains of the rocket that hit the hospital. These marks contain the numbers “840708036”, “~234452” and “45 • 14”. A similar marking, in the same format, was also visible on the remains of the Kh-101 missile, which was shot down over Ukraine on December 29, 2023. Some of these components have been turned into key fobs and put up for sale on the AirHubStore website.

It is worth noting that none of the images released by the SBU had geolocation data, as they were cropped and did not show the surroundings with identifiable objects.

This made it difficult to verify that these parts were actually at the scene. However, the images later published by the Gazeta.UA news site were geolocated to the hospital and appeared to show the same ammunition remnants as the SBU publications. For example, a support spar can be seen under the investigator’s hand in the image.

At the same time, the engine panel is also visible, its shape was matched to the element that can be seen in the previous SBU photo.

Gazeta.ua’s full image can be geolocated just a few meters west of the damaged hospital building (50.450632, 30.481437) thanks to other images and video from the scene taken by Reuters and Kyiv Post.

For example, a video published by Kyiv Post showed a different angle from which the image published by Gazeta.ua was taken. In the footage of each edition, you can even see the same person in military uniform, as well as the same damaged material, confirming their authenticity. The person’s face has been blurred for privacy.

Likewise, the Reuters photo from the scene shows the same picture of damage that can be seen in the Gazeta.ua image, which shows the same remains of missiles as those published by the SBU.

Refutation of US missile claims

After the explosion, some individuals on social networks were quick to declare that the rocket was not of Russian origin.

Jackson Hinkle, a political activist who appeared on Russian state media, was among those who made the incorrect claim that the missile was American-made.

Hinkle has been banned from several social networks for spreading false information.

Similarly, the War on Fakes resource, which is widely considered a Russian propaganda and disinformation source, claimed in its analysis that based on the ratio of the length and width of the missile, it could not be an X-101, but an AIM-120 fired by the Ukrainian NASAMS battery. AIM-120 is produced by the American company Raytheon. Claims that it was an AIM-120 ignore the jet engine prominently hanging from the tail of the missile that hit the hospital. This characteristic detail is present on the X-101, but absent on the AIM-120. Also, the wings in the middle of the missile that hit the hospital do not match the wings of the AIM-120. At the time of writing, the War on Fakes Telegram post had almost 800,000 views and thousands of shares.

In a follow-up post, the War on Fakes claimed that the high-quality photos had been edited to make the X-101 jet engine more visible, and that the video actually showed an AIM-120. However, the jet engine was still visible in lower-quality versions of the video, including those used in this article’s analysis.

Another Telegram account, ves.rf (ВЕСЪ.РФ), which has more than 56,000 followers, also published a post trying to justify Russia for the attack. The post, which has been viewed more than 440,000 times and was widely shared on X/Twitter, also claimed that the missile that hit the hospital was an AIM-120. At the same time, ves.rf also stated that the children’s hospital is located directly next to the State Aviation Service of Ukraine, which undermines its previous statements that the hospital was not hit by a Russian missile.

A 3D model of the AIM-120 missile was created to test this theory. Comparing this model to images of the missile that hit the hospital revealed that factors such as the AIM-120’s forward tail did not match. Also, the nose of the AIM-120 is much sharper than the nose of the missile that hit the hospital. Most notable is the absence of any component on the AIM-120 that corresponds to the jet engine seen in the rear of the missile in the video.

The difference between the characteristics of the AIM-120 and the missile that hit the hospital is also visible in this video.

The hospital was far from the only target during the July 8 Russian attack. At least twenty people were killed in the strikes on Kyiv alone, and the city’s mayor, Vitalii Klitschko, said nearly 100 were injured. In total, at least 41 people were killed across the country as a result of Russian rockets hitting several cities, including Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih and Dnipro.

The information was taken from Bellingcat’s open sources